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Charles Colgan: Warming seas are slamming coastal economies

From The Conversation

MIDDLEBURY, Vt.

Ocean-related tourism and recreation supports more than 320,000 jobs and US$13.5 billion in goods and services in Florida. But a swim in the ocean became much less attractive in the summer of 2023, when the water temperatures off Miami reached as high as 101 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8 Celsius).

The future of some jobs and businesses across the ocean economy have also become less secure as the ocean warms and damage from storms, sea-level rise and marine heat waves increases.

Ocean temperatures have been heating up over the past century, and hitting record highs for much of the past year, driven primarily by the rise in greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels. Scientists estimate that more than 90% of the excess heat produced by human activities has been taken up by the ocean.

That warming, hidden for years in data of interest only to oceanographers, is now having profound consequences for coastal economies around the world.

Understanding the role of the ocean in the economy is something I have been working on for more than 40 years, currently at the Center for the Blue Economy of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. Mostly, I study the positive contributions of the ocean, but this has begun to change, sometimes dramatically. Climate change has made the ocean a threat to the economy in multiple ways.

The dangers of sea-level rise

One of the big threats to economies from ocean warming is sea-level rise. As water warms, it expands. Along with meltwater from glaciers and ice sheets, thermal expansion of the water has increased flooding in low-lying coastal areas and put the future of island nations at risk.

In the U.S., rising sea levels will soon overwhelm Isle de Jean Charles in Louisiana and Tangier Island in Chesapeake Bay.

Flooding at high tide, even on sunny days, is becoming increasingly common in places such as Miami Beach; Annapolis, Maryland; Norfolk, Virginia; and San Francisco. High-tide flooding has more than doubled since 2000 and is on track to triple by 2050 along the country’s coasts.

Satellite and tide gauge data show sea-level change from 1993 to 2020. National Climate Assessment 2023

Rising sea levels also push salt water into freshwater aquifers, from which water is drawn to support agriculture. The strawberry crop in coastal California is already being affected.

These effects are still small and highly localized. Much larger effects come with storms enhanced by sea level.

Higher sea level can worsen storm damage

Warmer ocean water fuels tropical storms. It’s one reason forecasters are warning of a busy 2024 hurricane season.

Tropical storms pick up moisture over warm water and transfer it to cooler areas. The warmer the water, the faster the storm can form, the quicker it can intensify and the longer it can last, resulting in destructive storms and heavy downpours that can flood cities even far from the coasts.

When these storms now come in on top of already higher sea levels, the waves and storm surge can dramatically increase coastal flooding.

What Hurricane Hugo’s flooding would look like in Charleston, S.C., with today’s higher sea levels.

Tropical cyclones caused more than $1.3 trillion in damage in the U.S. from 1980 to 2023, with an average cost of $22.8 billion per storm. Much of that cost has been absorbed by federal taxpayers.

It is not just tropical storms. Maine saw what can happen when a winter storm in January 2024 generated tides 5 feet above normal that filled coastal streets with seawater.

A winter storm that hit at high tide sent water rushing into streets in Portland, Maine, in January 2024.

AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty

What does that mean for the economy?

The possible future economic damages from sea-level rise are not known because the pace and extent of rising sea levels are unknown.

One estimate puts the costs from sea-level rise and storm surge alone at over $990 billion this century, with adaptation measures able to reduce this by only $100 billion. These estimates include direct property damage and damage to infrastructure such as transportation, water systems and ports. Not included are impacts on agriculture from saltwater intrusion into aquifers that support agriculture.

Marine heat waves leave fisheries in trouble

Rising ocean temperatures are also affecting marine life through extreme events, known as marine heat waves, and more gradual long-term shifts in temperature.

In spring 2024, one third of the global ocean was experiencing heat waves. Corals are struggling through their fourth global bleaching event on record as warm ocean temperatures cause them to expel the algae that live in their shells and give the corals color and provide food. While corals sometimes recover from bleaching, about half of the world’s coral reefs have died since 1950, and their future beyond the middle of this century is bleak.

Healthy coral reefs serve as fish nurseries and habitat. These schoolmaster snappers were spotted on Davey Crocker Reef near Islamorada in the Florida Keys. Jstuby/wikimedia, CC BY

Losing coral reefs is about more than their beauty. Coral reefs serve as nurseries and feeding grounds for thousands of species of fish. By NOAA’s estimate, about half of all federally managed fisheries, including snapper and grouper, rely on reefs at some point in their life cycle.

Warmer waters cause fish to migrate to cooler areas. This is particularly notable with species that like cold water, such as lobsters, which have been steadily migrating north to flee warming seas. Once-robust lobstering in southern New England has declined significantly.

How three fish and shellfish species migrated between 1974 and 2019 off the U.S. Atlantic Coast. Dots shows the annual average location. NOAA

In the Gulf of Alaska, rising temperatures almost wiped out the snow crabs, and a $270 million fishery had to be completely closed for two years. A major heat wave off the Pacific coast extended over several years in the 2010s and disrupted fishing from Alaska to Oregon.

This won’t turn around soon

The accumulated ocean heat and greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will continue to affect ocean temperatures for centuries, even if countries cut their greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050 as hoped. So, while ocean temperatures fluctuate year to year, the overall trend is likely to continue upward for at least a century.

There is no cold-water tap that we can simply turn on to quickly return ocean temperatures to “normal,” so communities will have to adapt while the entire planet works to slow greenhouse gas emissions to protect ocean economies for the future.

Charles Colgan is director of Research for the Center for the Blue Economy at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Middlebury (Vt.)

Charles Colgan receives funding from several sources including NOAA and Lloyds of London. He was an author of the 5th National Climate Assessment chapter on oceans and the 4th California Climate Assessment chapter on coasts and oceans.

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Loneliness and landscape

Video still from Lake Valley, by American artist Rachel Rose, at Burlington (Vt.) City Arts.

The gallery says Lake Valley is a “visually rich animated video incorporating themes from children’s literature to create a dreamlike story about loneliness and imagination.’’

She looks at how mankind’s changing relationship to landscape has shaped storytelling and belief systems.

Burlington is sited spectacularly on Lake Champlain.

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Invasive species are crowding out New England’s native species

An Asian shore crab

Multiflora rose

Text excerpted from an ecoRI News article by Frank Carini

“Invasive Asian shore crabs are outcompeting young lobsters. Invasive snake worms and hammerhead worms are burying themselves deeper into southern New England, where the former consumes the top layer of soil and dead leaves where the seeds of plants germinate, and the latter is toxic and transmits harmful parasites to humans and animals.

“Invasive multiflora rose and oriental bittersweet have long been embedded in the region, crowding out native vegetation and strangling trees. Some Rhode Island nurseries and garden centers still sell foreign species that don’t mix well with local flora and fauna.

“The spread of invasive species has long been recognized as a global threat to the environment, the economy, and people. Last summer, the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) for the United Nations issued a global assessment providing clear evidence of this growing threat.’’

Here’s the whole article.

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Julie Appleby: Mass. company settles criminal case against it for lead-test malfunction coverup

Children living in such old urban dwellings as these three deckers in Cambridge, Mass., tend to have higher levels of lead exposure than average.

From Kaiser Family Foundation Health News

A company that makes tests for lead poisoning has agreed to resolve criminal charges that it concealed for years a malfunction that resulted in inaccurately low results.

It’s the latest in a long-running saga involving North Billerica, Mass.-based Magellan Diagnostics, which will pay $42 million in penalties, according to the Department of Justice.

While many of the fault-prone devices were used from 2013 to 2017, some were being recalled as late as 2021. The Justice Department said the malfunction produced inaccurate results for “potentially tens of thousands” of children and other patients.

Doctors don’t consider any level of lead in the blood to be safe, especially for children. Several U.S. cities, including Washington, D.C., and Flint, Michigan, have struggled with widespread lead contamination of their water supplies in the last two decades, making accurate tests critical for public health.

It’s possible faulty Magellan kits were used to test children for lead exposure into the early 2020s, based on the recall in 2021. Here’s what parents should know.

What tests were affected?

The inaccurate results came from three Magellan devices: LeadCare Ultra, LeadCare II, and LeadCare Plus. One, the LeadCare II, uses finger-stick samples primarily and accounted for more than half of all blood lead tests conducted in the U.S. from 2013 to 2017, according to the Justice Department. It was often used in physician offices to check children’s lead levels.

The other two could also be used with blood drawn from a vein and may have been more common in labs than doctor’s offices. The company “first learned that a malfunction in its LeadCare Ultra device could cause inaccurate lead test results – specifically, lead test results that were falsely low” in June 2013 while seeking regulatory clearance to sell the product, the DOJ said. But it did not disclose that information and went on to market the tests, according to the settlement.

The agency said 2013 testing indicated the same flaw affected the LeadCare II device. A 2021 recall included most of all three types of test kits distributed since October 27, 2020.

The company said in a press release announcing the resolution that “the underlying issues that affected the results of some of Magellan’s products from 2013 to 2018 have been fully and effectively remediated,” and that the tests it currently sells are safe.

What does a falsely low result mean?

Children are often tested during pediatrician visits at age 1 and again at age 2. Elevated lead levels can put kids at risk of developmental delay, lower IQ, and other problems. And symptoms, such as stomachache, poor appetite, or irritability, may not appear until high levels are reached.

Falsely low test results could mean parents and physicians were unaware of the problem.

That’s a concern because treatment for lead poisoning is, initially, mainly preventive. Results showing elevated levels should prompt parents and health officials to determine the sources of lead and take steps to prevent continued lead intake, said Janine Kerr, health educator with the Virginia Department of Health’s Childhood Lead Poisoning Prevention Program.

Children can be exposed to lead in a variety of ways, including by drinking water contaminated with lead from old pipes, such as in Flint and Washington; ingesting lead-based paint flakes often found in older homes; or, as reported recently, eating some brands of cinnamon-flavored applesauce.

What should parents do now?

“Parents can contact their child’s pediatrician to determine if their child had a blood lead test with a LeadCare device” and discuss whether a repeat blood lead test is needed, said Maida Galvez, a pediatrician and professor at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York.

During an earlier recall of some Magellan devices, in 2017, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended that patients be retested if they were pregnant, nursing, or children younger than 6 and had a blood lead level of less than 10 micrograms per deciliter as determined by a Magellan device from a venous blood draw.

The 2021 recall of Magellan devices recommended retesting children whose results were less than the current CDC reference level of 3.5 micrograms per deciliter. Many of those tests were of the finger-stick variety.

Kerr, at the Virginia health department, said her agency has not had many calls about that recall.

The finger-stick tests “are not that widely used in Virginia,” said Kerr, adding that “we did get a lot of questions about the applesauce recall.”

In any case, she said, the “best course of action for parents is to talk with a health care provider.”

Julie Appleby is a KFF Health News reporter.

jappleby@kff.org, @Julie_appleby

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You’ll need it

Work by American conceptional artist Michael C. Thorpe, in his current show, “Homeowners’ Insurance,’’ at the Fuller Craft Museum, Brockton, Mass.

The museum says:

“‘Michael C. Thorpe: Homeowners Insurance’ presents some of his quilt-based work. The 15 forms on view illustrate Thorpe’s distinct visual language known for its geometric shapes, colorful textures, and energetic stitching. A true storyteller, Thorpe shares his world through his expressions—his friends and family, inspirational figures, daily surroundings, athletic endeavors, even painterly abstractions and meaningful texts. By depicting harmonious narratives, Thorpe aims to inspire connection between people from all walks of life.’’

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Cozy space for youth

“I reveled in the smallness, the coziness of an upstairs bedroom in a traditional American Cape Cod house, the half-floor that forces you to duck, to feel small and naive again, ready for anything, dying for love, your body a chimney filled with odd, black smoke. These square, squat, awkward rooms are like a fifty-square-foot paean to teenage-hood, to ripeness, to the first and last taste of youth.’’

Gary Shteyngart (born 1972), Soviet-born) American writer

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DEI drive at some colleges can lead to dishonesty by job applicants

The MIT Media Lab, in Cambridge, Mass.

— Photo by Madcoverboy

 Adapted from Robert Whitcomb’s “Digital Diary,’’ in GoLocal24.com

The right wing greatly exaggerates the degree of “wokeness” in U.S. higher education, but there’s no doubt that the anxious, hyper-self-conscious drive to achieve “diversity, equity and inclusion’’ has gotten out of control at some institutions. The Washington Post gave a couple of examples in a recent editorial. They show an alarming focus on characterizing people on the basis of their ethnic, sexual and other identity and/or their  (real or fabricated) views on identity rather than on individuals’ intellectual achievements and ambitions.

It cited the MIT Communication Lab, which demanded that job applicants submit a diversity statement  as an “opportunity to show that you care about the inclusion of many forms of identity in academia and in your field, including but not limited to gender, race/ethnicity, age, nationality, sexual orientation, religion, and ability status,” and “it may be appropriate to acknowledge aspects of your own marginalized identity and/or your own privilege.” The Post also cited Harvard University’s Bok Center for Teaching and Learning, which asks applicants, “Do you seek to identify and mitigate how inequitable and colonial social systems are reinforced in the academy by attending to and adjusting the power dynamics in your courses?”

In other words, people are asked to take what are basically political stands when the emphasis in academia should presumably be to hire people on the basis of their knowledge of their specialties, their ability to teach undergraduate and graduate students, their potential to undertake important peer-reviewed research and their integrity.

Of course, the intense competition for academic jobs, especially at elite institutions, will  lead some candidates to lie about their views of DEI-related matters.

Here’s The Post’s editorial. 

Here’s some related material on this issue.

Fair or not, DEI programs, along with such unworkable programs as “reparations” to Black Americans for slavery,  and referring to a person as “they’’ in order to sound “gender-neutral” are potent ammunition for Trumpers.

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Chris Powell: Silly anti- ‘climate change’ drives in Vermont and Connecticut

MANCHESTER, Conn.

While it may be hard to believe, Vermont seems to have gotten ahead of Connecticut in "climate change" craziness.

The Green Mountain State has just passed a law allowing itself to charge big oil and natural gas companies for the cost to the state of the "greenhouse gases" emitted by use of the fuel sold by the companies between 1995 and 2024. The state itself will choose the criteria for calculating the cost. Mainly Vermont wants to blame the oil and gas companies for the extensive damage done in the state last year by terrible flooding.

Under the new law it won't matter that the fuel products on which "climate change" is being blamed were and remain not just perfectly legal but also crucial to modern civilization. No matter also that nearly everyone in Vermont has been using those products ever since they became available. Vermont wants to blame the manufacturers of the fuel products, not their users, the people for whom those products were made -- the people without whose demand the products wouldn't have been made at all.

Indeed, the mere manufacture of fuel didn't emit the "greenhouse gases" Vermont is complaining about. The use of them did.

Like all other states, Vermont already has a fuel tax. If the state wants to recover what it believes are its costs of the "climate change" caused by use fuel, it can raise that tax and get the money from the parties responsible for their use: its own residents. And if the state really believes that "climate change" disasters are being caused by the use of oil and gas, Vermont already should have outlawed those fuels.

Of course the legislators who passed the law don't really believe its premises. The new law is just a money grab that, if ever implemented, will be nullified in one court or another after years of expensive litigation. But until then legislators who voted for the law will pose as saviors of the environment.


Meanwhile Connecticut's climate alarmists want Gov. Ned Lamont and leaders of the Democratic majority in the General Assembly to put "climate crisis" legislation on the agenda of a special legislative session that is to be called to make a fix in motor vehicle assessment law, a special session that was supposed to be brief.

The "climate crisis" bill at issue passed the House of Representatives during the recent regular session but was stalled by some of the majority Democrats in the Senate who thought that it was more important to guard against climate change by modifying municipal zoning. (The Senate's Republican minority almost certainly would have opposed the "climate crisis" bill, as the Republican minority in the House did.)

After declaring a "climate crisis," the bill would just specify options for reducing "greenhouse gases" by 2050 -- safely beyond the political lifespans of most current legislators. Actual sacrifices would await another day.


Whatever one thinks of "climate change" and its causes -- natural phenomena or manmade phenomena arising only in recent decades -- the "climate crisis" legislation is silly. For even if "climate change" is substantially the result of the use of oil, gas and coal as fuel, Connecticut can do nothing meaningful about it. 

The state could outlaw those fuels and shut down all its industry requiring a smokestack and all its transportation requiring a tailpipe and the rest of the country and the rest of the world would continue to use those fuels. Since Connecticut's contribution to the world's "greenhouse gases" is tiny, the state would only disadvantage itself without achieving any measurable reduction in those gases. 

Even a national policy of eliminating oil, gas and coal as fuel would have little impact on "greenhouse gases" worldwide, since the developing world, including industrial giant China, will continue to use those fuels until something better comes along. Only a worldwide solution is worth pursuing -- if there really is a problem to solve.

Chris Powell has written about Connecticut government and politics for many years (CPowell@cox.net).  

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Nervous gay times on lower Washington Street

Washington Street in the 1920’s.

Excerpted from From The Boston Guardian

(New England Diary’s editor, Robert Whitcomb, is chairman of The Boston Guardian.)

“Before the Combat Zone, lower Washington Street was Gay Times Square, a mecca of bright lights, entertainment and a tolerance for life beyond the societal norms of heterosexuality….

“Prior to being plagued with strip joints with names like The Naked i Cabaret and the Pussycat Lounge, the neighborhood was home to Playland, the Petty Lounge and Touraine Cafe. The gathering places drew an LGBTQ crowd, while the local theaters, such as the Stuart Theater and the Pilgrim, created a show-business atmosphere that New York’s Times Square is known for.

“Many of the bar owners in the area often used bribery or connections with organized crime to keep police from raiding their establishments, according to research from The History Project, a Boston-based LGBTQ history organization.

“In the 1950s and 1960s, threats of persecution and prosecution kept the LGBTQ community underground, making many of the bars on Washington Street appealing….”

Hit this link to read the whole article.

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Llewellyn King: Tech giants want in on electricity

Centralized (left) vs. distributed electricity systems

WEST WARWICK, R.I.

During the desperate days of the energy crisis in the 1970s, it looked as though the shortage was permanent and we would have to change the way we lived, worked and played to allow for that.

In the end, technology solved the crisis.

For fossil fuels, it was 3D seismic, horizontal drilling and  fracking. For electricity, it was wind and solar and better technology for making electricity with natural gas — a swing from burning it under boilers to burning it in aeroderivative turbines, essentially airplane engines on the ground.

A new energy shortage — this time confined to electricity — is in the making and there are a lot of people who think that, magically, the big tech companies, headed by Alphabet’s Google, will jump in and use their tech muscle to solve the crisis.

The fact is that the tech giants, including Google but also Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Meta, are extremely interested in electricity because they depend on it supplies of it to their voracious data centers. The demand for electricity will increase exponentially as AI takes hold, according to many experts.

The tech giants are well aware of this and have been busy as collaborators and at times innovators in the electric space. They want to ensure an adequate supply of electricity, but also they insist that it be green and carbon-free.

Google has been a player in the energy field for some time with its Nest Renew service. This year, it stepped up its participation by merging with OhmConnect to form Renew Home. It is what its president, Ben Brown, and others call a virtual power plant (VPP). These  are favored  by environmentalists and utilities.

A VPP collects or saves energy from the system without requiring additional generation. It can be hooking up solar panels and domestic batteries, or plugging in and reversing the flow from an electric vehicle (EV) at night.

For Renew Home, the emphasis is definitely in the home, Brown told me in an interview.

Participants, for cash or other incentives (like rebates), cut their home consumption, managed by a smart meter, so that air conditioning can be put up a few notches, washing machines are turned off, and an EV can be reversed to feed the grid.

At present, Brown said, Renew Home controls about 3 gigawatts of residential energy use —  a gigawatt is sometimes described as enough electricity to power San Francisco — and plans to expand that to 50 GW by 2030. All of it is already in the system and doesn't require new lines, power plants or infrastructure.

“We are hooking up millions of customers,” he said, adding that Renew Home is cooperating with 100 utilities.

Fortunately, peak demand and the ability to save on home consumption coincide between 5 p.m. and 9 p.m.

There is no question that more electricity will be needed as the nation electrifies its transportation and its manufacturing — and especially as AI takes hold across the board.

Todd Snitchler, president of the Electric Power Supply Association, told the annual meeting of the United States Energy Association that a web search using ChatGPT uses nine times as much power as a routine Google search.

Google, and the other four tech giants, are in the electricity-supply space, but not in the way people expect. Renew Home is an example; although Google’s name isn’t directly connected, it is the driving force behind Renew Home.

Sidewalk Infrastructure Partners (SIP), a development fund, financed largely by Google, has invested $100 million in Renew Home. Brown is a former Google executive as is Jonathan Winer, co-CEO and cofounder of SIP.

As Jim Robb, president of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, the congressionally mandated, not-for-profit supply watchdog, told me recently on the TV show White House Chronicle,  the expectation that Google will go out and build power plants is silly as they would face the same hurdles that electric utilities already face.

But Google is keenly interested in power supply, as are the other tech behemoths. The Economist reports they are talking to utilities and plant operators about partnering on new capacity.

Also, they are showing an interest in small modular reactors and are working with entrepreneurial power providers on building new capacity with the tech company taking the risk. Microsoft has signed a power-purchase agreement with Helion Energy, a fusion power developer.

Big tech is on the move in the electric space. It may even pull nuclear across the finish line.

Llewellyn King is executive producer and host of White House Chronicle, on PBS. His email is llewellynking1@gmail.com, and he’s based in Rhode Island.

whchronicle.com

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Two Connecticuts

“I lived in a town called New Canaan {Conn.}, which is far too snobby to even mention celebrities. Many American towns are famous for things like ‘See the World’s Largest Ball of String.’ I think my town’s would probably have to be ‘Most Pretentious People.”’

-- Katherine Heigl (born 1978), American actress

Skyline of Norwich, Conn.

“Eastern Connecticut is very different from western.; we’re more liverwurst than pate, more bowling than polo.’’

— Wally Lamb (born 1950), American novelist and native of the old industrial town of Norwich, Conn.

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The New England Aquarium and the blue economy

The New England Aquariums plaza, in a 2017 photo.

— Photo by Beyond My Ken

Edited from a New England Council report

BOSTON

“The New England Aquarium is using its family-oriented reputation to educate and help grow the blue economy. This multi-pronged approach brings together big names from the industry, young and small startups and businesses, and academic experts.

‘‘The first initiative involves industry and the market working with the aquarium’s BalanceBlue lab to help promote sustainable ocean use, from improved fishing practices and carbon removal innovations. ‘You can’t have a climate conversation without the ocean. All the programs come together to think about how we are going to create new pathways to promote responsible ocean use,’ said Emiley Lockhart, the aquarium’s associate vice president for ocean sustainability.

“The BalanceBlue lab includes the bluetech incubator BlueSwell, which helps startups working on both ocean sustainability and the marine economy. BlueSwell has helped four startups receive funding and mentorship since 2020. An additional part of the BalanceBlue umbrella is the UpSwell program, which runs in collaboration with SeaAhead and is publishing a series of webinars and papers about ocean tech. According to Lockhart, the blue economy will be expanding rapidly, and he believes that ocean-derived technology will be an important part of that growth, with the New England Aquarium leading that growth.’’

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Tangled web

Spring Peepers(oil on canvas), by Kathy Hodge, in the show “Complex World: Paintings by Kathy Hodge and Nick Paciorek,’’ at the Providence Art Club through June 28.

The gallery says:

“Hodge’s wild and tangled vegetation of New England and Paciorek’s colorful celebration of the bounty of vineyards reveal the hidden order within the apparent chaos of the natural world.’’

Southern France Vineyard ‘‘ (oil on canvas), by Nick Paciorek.

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Complex water view

“Parhelion, Full Flower Moon,’’ by Maine-based art photographer Linda Mahoney, in the group show “Lens Remembrance,’’ a collection of the work of Maine and New Hampshire artists using photography as an art form, at the Lakes Gallery at Chi-Lin, Laconia, N.H., June 6-July 21

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